A Monte Carlo forecasting engine for rugby tournaments, refreshed daily.
- Python
- Glicko-2
- XGBoost
- SQLite
- Next.js
- TypeScript
- Vercel
Data and software consultancy
I build the data and software systems a business actually runs on — the pipeline that feeds it, the model behind the decision, and the application that puts both in front of someone.
Approach
Your business carries real complexity, and modelling it properly matters. The thing you use every day should still be simple to run and safe to change.
Most of what I'm asked to fix was built once, quickly, for a situation that has since changed, and then relied on for years afterwards. The work is usually about making the logic explicit enough that somebody other than its author can change it without breaking it.
Services
Data pulled out of the systems it lives in and landed somewhere you can query it, on a schedule, without anyone watching.
Quantitative models that publish their own accuracy, so you know what to trust them for.
Software and reporting that produce the answer, so nobody spends an afternoon assembling it.
The repetitive half of a monthly process removed, so the cycle stops costing a week of somebody's attention.
Built to hold up where a spreadsheet is the right answer, and lifted into code where it has stopped being one.
Standing in as the technical lead a small team doesn't have: architecture, review, and the pipeline that enforces both.
Practice
I work as the technical lead for companies that need one without hiring one: advising the executive on the build-versus-buy call, owning the architecture, and drafting the scope then delivering against it.
In practice that has meant ETL pipelines feeding time-series stores, dashboards, internal admin systems, and the CI that keeps them honest.
Before consulting, quantitative roles across asset management, management consulting, e-commerce and technology — for large listed companies down to micro enterprises.
The name is where this started. A spreadsheet is usually the first place a business writes its real logic down, so it's still where a good number of engagements begin. It's no longer where most of them end.
Built
Consulting work belongs to the client, so these are what I can show. Each one is running, published, or both, and each shows the method as well as the result.
A Monte Carlo forecasting engine for rugby tournaments, refreshed daily.
One tidyverse-shaped interface over R's machine learning ecosystem.
A practical guide to the infrastructure data science assumes you already have.
Which Claude Code model and effort level a piece of work needs.
Writing
Warnings about disaster do the most good when they say how it would happen and what to do about it. What economic history, warning research, forecasting and AI safety know about that.
If AI ends up writing near-perfect code, do software updates become new features only? No. Some change you choose and some the world forces on you, and AI may soon handle the forced kind on its own.
Send an agent the source. In my tests a web link gave it a short summary, an artifact link failed or cost up to twice the page, a Quarto page defeated its Read tool, and PDFs broke file paths.
Contact
A process that costs too much attention, a number nobody can trace, a model that has outgrown where it lives. I'll tell you what I'd do about it before you have to commit to anything.
Cape Town, South Africa